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2016 Market Update

2016 Market Update

2016 Telluride Real Estate Market Update:

The total dollar volume of sales in 2016 essentially equaled 2015 in large part due to a nice surge this Fall, particularly Town condos, Mountain Village condos and MV homes. In fact, both MV segments did half of their annual dollar volume in the Fall, and the MV condos segment was the overall dollar volume winner this year signaling a nice show of strength in the MV, partially due in response to depleted inventory in Town.

When comparing 2016 to 2007 (our finest year) it is interesting to note that sales of homes and condos in both towns tell interesting stories, while the overall market data for those years exhibit the new normal:

  • Town of Telluride Condos: In 2016 there were $71m in sales via 78 transactions for an average sale price of $910,000 versus $58.5m/67/$874,000 in 2007.
  • Mountain Village condos: $103.5m/95/$1.09m v. $120m/81/$1.48m.
  • Town of Telluride Homes: $60.2m/27/$2.23m v. $67.7m/32/$2.12m
  • Mountain Village Homes: $69.2m/20/$3.46m v. $144.7m/40/$3.6m
  • In 2016 4 condos and 2 homes sold for over $1,200/sf and in 2007 there were 3 condos and 2 homes that sold for over $1,200/sf.
  • In 2007 there were 631 transactions totalling $756.6m and in 2016 there were 562 transactions totalling $452.8m. The dollar volume in 2007 was the greatest ever and 855 transactions in 2005 was the largest number.

MV condos’ lower dollar volume and average price are due to the slow comeback to pre-Recession values thanks to the large inventory which, in turn, has resulted in tremendous purchasing opportunities. MV home sales have remained slow in part due to a lack of newer inventory and the opportunities in condos. Overall, the number of annual transactions and buyers in the market has dropped significantly from the mid 2000’s. The dollar volume has dropped $300m from 2007 in large part due to a change in the buyer demographic where people are more interested in being in Town versus out on the mesas. We have not seen the sale of large ranch properties as we have in the past. This is similar to buyers moving from the suburbs into the city. We have begun to see a shift to MV, specifically condos, where buyers can get more for their money than in town where there is an inventory shortage. Finally, there has been tremendous interest and sales in full service properties such as Auberge Resorts’ Element 52 and The Madeline. The Madeline had 27 sales and Element 52 had 7 in 2016 in large part due to the value, rental incomes, central location and full services. Again, a similar sign of the demographic where buyers are interested in convenience over privacy.

Comparable Markets:

Jackson Hole is off 8% for the year but in large part due to a shortage of inventory thanks to a few strong years. Vail closed the year slightly ahead of 2015 with a strong Fall as well bolstering their year.

Aspen had a much worse year where Tim Estin, local realtor, had the below to say in an Aspen Times article in August 2016:

“Aspen real estate: Was 2015 that good or is 2016 that bad?”, suggested that it was misguided to compare 2016 to a record year like 2015. This chart, and many other Estin Report Monthly Snapshots posted during 2016, demonstrate that thinking wrong. 2016 was a very bad Aspen real estate year, especially the 1st Half, the worst since 2010. Most notably, Aspen single family home sales for the year were off 50-60% and sales of properties over $10M were down a stunning 65%. Everyone including me,  blamed the election and the attendant uncertainty. Few suggested the lack of sales may have been due to speculative and unrealistic pricing turning buyers off and away. As we head into 2017, we shall see.  Since the election, sales activity has been picking up.”

Aspen appears to have suffered a similar fate as other luxury markets such as the HamptonsNew York and Miami where there was a tremendous sales spike and prices escalated too quickly causing a correction. Fortunately, Telluride has maintained a more controlled growth rate that appears sustainable into the future, in part due to the tremendous community unlike any other mountain town whereby buyers are buying for enjoyment versus investment because they consider Telluride their home now and/or in the future.

Telluride in the news:

Vogue: Hidden Gems of Telluride

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Forbes: World’s Best Ski Resorts 
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Telluride Ski Resort Master Plan: 

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5 Things Aspen Can Learn From Telluride
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Beck to Headline Ride Festival 2017
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Thank you for reading, and we hope to see you soon!

-The O’Neill Stetina Group

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